What Kind of Fantasy Football Value Can a Non-Goal Line Back Hold?

What Kind of Fantasy Football Value Can a Non-Goal Line Back Hold?
By Bobby Hastings

This article will explore the fantasy football value of running backs that do not get goal line carries vs. those that do. To support our analysis we looked at the final running back ranking of 2008 from Yahoo Fantasy Sports. Based on the distribution of final fantasy points we were able to identify five different categories of running backs in the National Football League. First you have the primary running backs that dominate the ball. These are your Adrian Peterson and Ladainian Tomlinsons of the 2008 season. (editors note: LT is currently in a time share for 2009). Second, you have your top tier secondary backs that really put up nice numbers. In 2008 Chris Johnson is the perfect example. While he was dominant between the 20’s it was LenDale White who saw the ball on the goal-line. Third, there are your top tier goal line backs. These are your big men who guaranteed to get the ball on the goal line, they often play on running teams who like to grind it out. LenDale White of 2008 is the perfect poster boy for this role. Fourth, you have your secondary running backs that could be playmakers if an injury were to occur. Darren Sproles is the perfect example of this from last year. As soon as LT went down he stepped in and put up huge numbers. Lastly, you have the second tier goal-line specialists. These are the big men who find themselves often as the third back on the depth chart and are brought in only in short yardage situations. TJ Duckett is the perfect example of this type of player. Lets take a deeper look at the running backs from 2008 and see what else there is to learn.

The top 10 running backs from the 2008 season all received goal line duties and were not involved in a RBBC. Those that were in an RBBC played along a secondary running back who was more of a scat back change of pace guy and not really a threat to steal goal line carries.

Of the backs that finished the season ranked 11-20 we begin to see the dominant RBBC backs appear. Chris Johnson who did not receive goal line duty in 2008 makes the list at #11. Brandon Jacobs who split carries with Derrick Ward, but did receive goal lines duties comes in at #12. At #16 is Ronnie Brown who is similar to Chris Johnson and also did not receive many goal line carries in 2008. #19 and #20 are LenDale White and LeRon Mclain who both did not receive the majority of their teams carries, but did consistently get the ball on the goal line. It appears the second tier of running backs is variable in its makeup. Essentially you have the non-RBBC backs strung in with the dominant non-goal line backs and the lucky secondary RBBC players who happen to hit pay dirt the most near the goal line.

After #20 things get very variable. In fact from looking at the way the final rankings wound up it is better to put your chips on the secondary back in the RBBC who does not necessarily get goal carries than a straight up goal line specialist. By far the players with the least value are the big men who only see the ball on the goal-line. True goal line specialists do not really seem worth a fantasy football play.

At the end of the day running backs should be valued as follows:
1. Primary backs who get goal line carries
2. Top tier secondary backs who rack up yards
3. Top tier goal-line backs
4. Secondary running backs with a shot to put up points in the event of injury
5. Secondary backs who are goal-line specialists

Top 2008 Running Backs
1. DeAngelo Williams
2. Michael Turner
3. Matt Forte
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Thomas Jones
6. Ladainian Tomlinson
7. Steve Slaton
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Clinton Portis
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Chris Johnson
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Marshawn Lynch
14. Frank Gore
15. Steven Jackson
16. Ronnie Brown
17. Marion Barber
18. Kevin Smith
19. LenDale White
20. Le’Ron McClain
21. Pierre Thomas
22. Ryan Grant
23. Derrick Ward
24. Jonathan Stewart
25. Jamal Lewis

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