Drafting Injured – Suspended Players – Fantasy Football Impact Analysis

Drafting Injured – Suspended Players – Fantasy Football Impact Analysis
By Bobby Hastings

Every year there is that guy, the player who decided to fight dogs, drive drunk, sell drugs, etc. during the off-season. Typically these players face suspension prior to returning to active NFL duty. The question is how to are fantasy football managers to evaluate these players? While they are often talented without a doubt, the football season is short. How much does talent make up for lack of productivity? The same logic can be applied to injured players slated to miss the first few games of the season. This article will reveal a simple yet effective methodology for adjusting players pre-season ranking based on missed games due to injury or suspension.

In some cases deciding who to draft between an injured/suspended player and an active player is a no-brainer. Marshaw Lynch should easily put up more numbers in twelve games than say Brian Leonard over 16. In that case it is easy draft, Lynch over Leonard. The real challenge is how do we project Lynch’s performance so that we can get a sense of where to draw the line?

The following is fairly simple strategy that is fast, makes sense and is easy to apply. In short, for a suspended/injured player, take their previous years stats, project them to the coming year and adjust them downward based on the % of the season he will miss. For example, lets take Marshawn Lynch who is slated to miss the first four games of the season.

In 2008 Marshawn had 1036 yards and 8 TDs. With the arrival of T.O. we expect things to open up, and project Marshawn up to 1150 yards and 12 TDs if he were to play all 16 games. However, he is suspended for 4 games which is 25% of the season. We simply multiply Marshawn’s projections by (1-.25) .75 to get his adjusted projects. So we move 1036 to (1150* .75) 862 yds and (11*.75) 8.25 TDs.

Once you have his projected numbers it is easy to evaluate where to draft Marshawn. Draft him around the other running backs going for 862 yards and 8 TDs.

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